The Friday meeting of the Budget Recommendation Committee, the first attended by new University Budget Director David Kribs and Vice President for Strategy Kelly Brough, focused on an enrollment update, budget guidance from President Janine Davidson, Ph.D., and an updated BRC calendar.
Enrollment update
Kelsey Smith, assistant director of Data Analytics, provided a student profile and enrollment forecast making comparisons between recent semesters and looking ahead through spring 2023.
In the spring 2021 semester, student head count (state-funded, full-time-equivalent) was 16,035. As of this semester, that number has dropped 5.99% to 15,075 students. Smith also pointed to data showing that a growing proportion of the student body is pursuing classes part-time rather than full-time. In spring 2020, 36% of students were part-time; in 2021, that number grew to 40%. It currently stands at 43%.
Credit load has also decreased, from an average of 11.4 credits in spring 2020 to 11.1 in spring 2021 to 10.7 in spring 2022.
Metropolitan State University of Denver started the semester down 9.82% in FTEs. Meanwhile, concurrent enrollment continues to expand, contributing to the University’s growth in students ages 19 and younger, while all other age groups have experienced a modest decrease. This has led to an increase in first-year students and a corresponding and fairly even decrease in sophomore-, junior- and senior-level students.
While the University has experienced demographic shifts, Smith noted that the proportion of Hispanic students is increasing, with the African American/Black student population holding steady. The past year marked a small increase in Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander students, with slight declines in white student populations.
Smith also outlined the Holt-Winters Seasonal Exponential Smoothing model and how it has been applied to forecast overall head counts, enrollment shifts and semester-to-semester changes, head counts by primary major and more granular trends using a bottom-up approach. The model predicts a 6% enrollment decrease for next fall relative to last fall. Smith noted that the model is focusing only on head count and the immediate horizon and does not account for University interventions or trends in the economy, public health, the admissions pipeline, etc., over a longer period. Smith and the data team can also provide more college- and department-specific data forecasts on request.
President’s guidance
For fiscal 2022, MSU Denver has focused on recovery from the financial impacts of Covid-19. More than $76 million in one-time Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund investments were made across campus, primarily in Information Technology Services, Human Resources, Financial Aid and classroom updates and modernizations across the University. These investments were intended to provide a foundation for FY23, which will focus on realigning the University budget to invest in stabilizing enrollment and establishing realistic enrollment targets.
George Middlemist, Ph.D., associate vice president for Administration and Finance and chief financial officer, noted that the University achieved peak credit-hour production in the 2010-11 academic year, hitting 533,681 credit hours. Credit-hour producation has declined steadily since, dropping more sharply between 2019 and the present to 366,568. Had the University maintained its highest-level credit-hour production from 2011 through the present fiscal year, a net cumulative additional revenue of $242 million would have been realized, and that in turn would have been reinvested into the University.
Referring to Davidson’s memo to the BRC, Edward Brown, chief of staff to Davidson, noted that the president will seek BRC recommendations with regard to enrollment targets for FY23-24. These recommendations will also inform the Office of Strategy’s work around budget realignment and high-impact practices, i.e., programs that will enhance enrollment, retention and student success.
BRC calendar
The next BRC meeting is March 4. The BRC is awaiting final higher-education funding decisions from the state legislature, which will inform tuition-rate options. At its March 25 meeting, the BRC will consider enrollment and budget revenue scenarios for this summer and next fall as well as mandatory-fee-increase recommendations. The committee will present Phase I recommendations to Davidson on April 1.
Budget process
To ensure that the budget process remains transparent, collaborative and inclusive of all stakeholder areas, the BRC will work over the next year with a consultant to institute changes and process improvements focused on meeting structure and organization.